German Bundesliga – Title Race

Ciaran Bonass studies the Bundesliga title race at the half-way point of the season and examines where the value lies in the betting markets.Autobahns, Lederhosen, Beethoven, Bratwurst, Mercedes, Oktoberfest, a ruthlessly powerful economy and consistently unheralded yet over-achieving football teams with an iron-nerve from the penalty spot – there are certain things that just can’t be escaped when one thinks of Germany; even if Switzerland would be more accurately titled as ‘the land of chocolate’.Season tickets at many German football clubs can come in at under €150 so it’s little wonder the Bundesliga boasts the highest average attendance of any league in Europe, exciting attacking football featuring plenty of goals might also play its part though. Despite Bayern Munich’s historical and financial clout they certainly don’t have it all their own way and with only a point separating the top four at the halfway point of the season there could be plenty of value to be found in a compelling Bundesliga title race to get your own back on Angela Merkel and her cronies with stunning efficiency come May.It’s no surprise that as the league’s only superpower the country’s most successful club lead the way at the moment but Bayern certainly won’t be coasting to the title as they threatened to do in the early exchanges this season, when, despite a surprise 1-0 loss at home to Borussia Mönchengladbach on the opening day of the season, the 2010 champions went 12 games without conceding a goal in any competition before they were beaten at Hannover in late October. Since then Jupp Heynckes’ side have suffered three further losses in the league and the aura of invincibility which was picking up a head of steam following their early season form has all but evaporated, just as the Iron Curtain new goalkeeper Manuel Neuer seemed to have constructed for himself in front of goal turned out to be no more intimidating than a child’s security blanket.Bayern at 4/9 don’t carry too much value for me, as they also have a substantial distraction in the form of a Champions League final in Munich to aim for and will fancy their chances against anybody in a home tie should they go all the way there – stop sniggering Barcelona fans.A last 16 tie against a limited Basel side who must have been delighted that Manchester United completely underestimated them in the group stages will make Bayern extremely confident of progress. The luck of the draw from that point might prove a double-edged sword with any favourable tie – and merely avoiding Spain’s big two for as long as possible would be much appreciated by any club still in the competition – just as likely to provide further hope to their German title rivals. Rumours of discontent and controversy continue to surround Franck Ribery and Arjen Robben and despite the clinical Mario Gomez – a striker who’s scored a phenomenal 45 goals in 46 starts since arriving from Stuttgart in 2009 – and the return to the fold of Bastien Schweinsteiger – a midfield general all too rare in modern football – Bayern just aren’t the same side without their two wide men fully focused and firing on all cylinders. So Bavaria might have to wait for another title party in 2012 and make do with a European showpiece event at the Allianz Arena instead, with or without the hosts making an appearance on the field.Borussia Dortmund’s resurgence in recent years has been a welcome one as the club who routinely challenged for Europe’s top honours in the 90′s were on the verge of bankruptcy less than 10 years after beating a highly-fancied Juventus 3-1 in that memorable 1997 Champions League final. Much is to be said for a loyal fanbase who have regularly made the Westfalenstadion the stadium with the highest average attendance in world football even as their side struggled and an emphasis on youth which has unearthed gems like Mats Hummels, Kevin Grobkreutz and Mario Goetze but a huge amount of credit for Dortmund’s recent success must go to coach Jurgen Klopp. The man who makes Martin O’Neill seem muted on a touchline has a similar effect on his charges to the Sunderland boss, and Klopp is also an advocator of quick, incisive football based on pace and possession and his Dortmund players have adopted the approach in style.In complete contrast to Bayern’s early season form, the champions seemed to suffer badly with the added expectation last season’s title win placed on a young team, losing three of their opening six league games, and they didn’t do themselves any justice in the opening rounds of the Champions League either – taking only a point from their first three group games. It proved too much ground to make up in Europe as they finished bottom of their group and were eliminated from European competition but Dortmund haven’t lost another game in the Bundesliga since and they have gone on to record eye-catching away wins against Bayern and a crushing 5-1 win at Hamburg en route. A critical run of games over ten days in April looks likely to decide Dortmund’s fate this season as they face Bayern, Schalke and Mönchengladbach at the business end of the season but the form team look to have the bit between their teeth after their sloppy opening to the campaign and considering domestic matters are all they will have to concern themselves with I think the 23/10 on offer for Klopp’s men to retain their title looks to be outstanding value for a team who’ve already proved they can go the distance. The pretenders to the throne come in the form of Schalke and Mönchengladbach, who sit in third and fourth place respectively, and will quietly fancy themselves to upset the odds given a bit of luck and an injury-free period of consistency. The problem for both is that much like Spurs in the Premier League, they will have to rely on the two other, bigger, clubs in the mix falling by the wayside in order for them to take advantage, and this is inconceivable given both of the top two have already suffered slumps this season and still remain ahead of the pack.Spanish great Raul turned heads in signing for Schalke two years ago on the assumption it was to ease his way toward retirement but he remains a class act and has combined with the prolific Dutchman Klaas Jan Huntelaar to great effect since arriving in Germany so if any club were to prosper from an unlikely double-capitulation it would surely be the Royal Blues, although enticing as the 12/1 is on them to become the fourth different champions in as many years I think they may represent better value in the Europa League at the same odds, given the favourites for that competition look to have bigger fish to fry.Mönchengladbach have performed brilliantly to keep pace with the three clubs above them this season but even at 14/1 for a team just a point off the top spot with half the season gone I can’t recommend any team that have lost half of their away games to date and only scored seven goals in the process – no matter how talented Marco Reus proves to be.